Why Man Utd losing 3-0 to Liverpool was ‘not a disaster’

Manchester United had more shots than Liverpool, don’t you know? We have loads more reaction to the game of the weekend.

There were other matches and other talking points to mail us at [email protected]

Man Utd defeat to Liverpool was not a disaster
Guess the game from the match stats:

Possession 47.2%-52.8%
Shots 11-8
Shots on target 3-3
Shots off target 5-7
Blocked shots 0-1
Clear-cut chances 4-3
Saved shots 3-0
Tackles 62.5%-70.8%
Aerial duels won 13-5
Fouls 7-7
Corners 2-5

Can you guess it?

That’s right, it’s the drubbing Liverpool inflicted on Man Utd this past weekend. Forgive me if I don’t completely disregard the evidence from my own eyes backed up by the stats and fall into the media sensationalism that this was somehow a season-defining moment for us. And I’m somewhat disappointed in F365 for jumping on this lazy narrative.

A team that was pants last season and not great since Ferguson left got beaten by a team that was good last season and until May was coached by one of the best coaches in the world in recent years for nearly 9 years. Slot has come in and changed very little; are people including football journalists really so idiotic to think it’s a shocker that Liverpool are still a very good team? Is it really a surprise that, off the back of a Euros and Copa America, the Man Utd squad needs more time to train together and come together? Is it really a surprise that Casemiro, now a year older, is not more sprightly and fit than he was last year and the year before?

This isn’t to shift the blame from Ten Hag, who needs to adapt his methods and more work needs to be done on coaching shape and basic shit like passing to team mates. But it’s not a disaster and I’m sick of people peddling this narrative.
Daniel (not taking crazy pills) Cambridge

This one’s for Calvino
There are two types of United supporters, perfectly illustrated in yesterday’s Mailbox. On the one hand, you have Ernie eloquently summarizing the myriad examples of the utter lunacy that Hag is somehow still in a paying job (and bleeding the club of millions) despite any and all forms of logic, rhyme, or reason.

Then there’s the second type. Let’s call them Calvino. Calvino represents the glass-half-full types. The Eric-just-needs-more-time types. The types who actually believe the problem is all just a made-up media circus. It’s just journalists with a grudge, apparently. It’s just Football365’s agenda. It’s just bitter, rival ex-players’ punditry. It’s also just the injuries. It’s just the individual mistakes. It’s just the players not trying. It’s just Rashford. It’s just Maguire. It’s just Casemiro, who’s going to get sidelined now anyway. It’s just players who only came back 3-4 weeks ago. It’s just players who are new to the league and need more time. It’s just back-post goals. It’s just missing Shaw. It’s just missing that midfielder who has never played for us yet. It’s just the scoreline that deceives you—didn’t you see the XG and shots on target? It’s just the final pass. It’s just a dip in confidence. It’s just a little rust. It’s just the rub of the green. It’s just the bounce of the ball. It’s just around the corner, lads.

Alas, the mask slipped for Calvino in his summary paragraph, where he came out fighting/deflecting with the Liverpool put-downs. ‘Slot has yet to face a major challenge,’ Calvino claims. This coming from a United supporter less than 24 hours after Liverpool utterly humiliated United 3-0 at Old Trafford for all the world to see.

It’s just how far the mighty have fallen.
Sean (loving a toxic-free Mailbox with the comments off, but missing the occasional good banter it brought)

(Oh, the comments are back. Behave – Ed)

MORE ON MAN UTD MESS FROM F365:
👉 16 Conclusions on Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool: Ten Hag sack, great Gravenberch, Casemiro done, ‘unprofessional’ Szob
👉 Five reasons for Manchester United fans to be cheerful features the Ten Hag sack
👉 Zirkzee 8th), Ugarte 5th): Ratcliffe-era Man Utd transfer decisions ranked from worst to best

…Now, I have my issues with Matt Stead’s 16 Conclusions, in that I think they understated the effectiveness of Liverpool’s performance. Not unlike the now semi-regular Neville-Carragher “This Is Manchester United We’re Talking About” post-match inquest on Sky, he concentrated on the paucity of United’s play, and almost failed to give Liverpool any credit at all for their excellent win.

But good Lord, Calvino . This is the letter-writing equivalent of the KC Green cartoon of the little dog in the burning house saying “This is Fine.” This sort of Pollyanna behaviour helps nobody.

It’s fun to have a gimmick, you know, but you’ve got to be wary of descending into self-parody.
Dara O’Reilly, London

Man Utd fans chanted about Hillsborough
Was at the game on Sunday, a Liverpool fan sat in the South Stand trying (successfully I must add) not to celebrate as we drubbed our friends from Manchester once again.

Have seen plenty written about Ten Hag, Casemiro, Slot, Gravenberch etc and that’s all great. What I haven’t seen is any comments about the United fans singing.

Starting in the Stretford End but taken on by what felt like a large % of the rest of the ground, they sang about the S*n being right and Scousers being murderers not once but twice.

By not talking about this and saying it is disgusting, I think we normalize it – much like the demonization of other cultures/religions in our country.

Of course I am aware that ‘all’ clubs have this problem. What shocked me was just how many United supporters were joining in.
MattInTheHat, LFC

Note for Liverpool fans
I’m sure we’re all happy about winning Vs united however I think its a little unfair to spend all the time saying united are washed up and ten hag is awful and then claim it’s a big scalp when we win.

Either United are a good side and it’s a worthy win or their a terrible side and it’s a run of the mill win.

You can’t eat your cake and have it too.
Lee

No cause for alarm on Liverpool Three
The situation with Salah, Trent and Virgil starting the season with only one year left on their LFC contracts is coming up a lot. Rightly so. It is obviously very far from ideal. But it is also the obvious outcome from the unique circumstances.

I think it makes sense to consider how each party would be looking at the situation:

Salah (turned 32 in June):
– The player will feel he showed no overall sign of declining in 2023-24, despite ending the season poorly. He is believed to be more motivated by statistics, records, awards and trophies than he is by money. He seems to be unlikely to want to go to the Saudi league immediately, and more likely to either want a move to another European giant, or to stay at LFC, to continue playing at the top level. His willingness to stay at LFC depends on the Slot situation, both in terms of the interpersonal relationship with Salah and with overall results. Waiting to see how things go this season before discussing a new contract was the logical move, as it strengthens his ability to consider moves to other European giants without precluding an extension at LFC.

– The club would have been concerned about his poor end to last season. He is already the club’s highest-paid player by a big margin, and he does not seem willing to accept any pay cut. Giving Slot a chance to work with him and seeing how he starts the new season before deciding what kind of a contract offer to make was the logical/safe move.

Trent (will be 26 in Oct):
– The player is a local hero who could want to spend his entire career at LFC. On the other hand, he is also one of the best players in the world and would be wanted by any other top side, and he might want to play elsewhere. In either case, whether it will be better for him to play for LFC in the 2025-2027 seasons will depend heavily on the Slot situation, again both in terms of interpersonal relationship and with overall results, but also perhaps in terms of the RB/CM positional debate. Waiting to see how things go was the logical move, as it strengthens his ability to move to other European giants without precluding an extension at LFC.

– Unlike Salah and Virgil, the club would have never had a moment of doubt about wanting to retain Trent. That said, if Trent expresses a preference to keep his options open and see how things go with Slot before signing any extension, there is good reason to be calm about the likelihood of him staying, and no need to pressure him into committing sooner than he is comfortable.

Virgil (turned 33 in July):
– The player is Dutch but has spent his entire (post-Eredivisie) professional career playing in Britain. He might have the ambition to play for a European giant while he still has the level to do so. While the manager being Dutch might suggest they’d see eye-to-eye, there are plenty of famous examples of Dutch football personalities not getting along whatsoever, so this is another case where it made sense to “wait and see” before making any decisions.

– While there are no concerns about Virgil’s performances last season, he is nonetheless 33 years old and already the second-highest paid player at the club. Deciding how much salary/bonus to offer Virgil in this context is not straightforward (and may also be linked to whether Salah extends). It once again makes sense for the club to see how the new season starts before deciding what kind of offers make sense.

In terms of timing, from a LFC perspective it should not be seen as concerning that these players have not extended so far. I would begin to be concerned if we reach mid-October and there has still been no developments or news. If we reach mid-December I’d begin assuming they’d leave. But for now, as of early September 2024, the situation is entirely logical and no cause for alarm.
Oliver Dziggel, Geneva Switzerland

…I’m a bit perplexed at fellow Liverpool fans getting riled up about the contract situations of the big 3…

Rival fans getting giddy and news outlets chasing clicks is no doubt feeding into this.

Isn’t it likely that the main focus from the club during the transfer window was to sign players that they felt would enhance the squad before a time sensitive deadline? Contract negotiations can now take place ahead of the next time sensitive deadline (January).

I’m not saying that all or none of them will extend, just that there’s ample time to make the agreements and there’s no need to equate the signing of new players to the business of extending existing player contracts.
James Outram, Wirral

How Liverpool won the Premier League
If Man Utd and Liverpool fans want to understand why their clubs are locked in a semi-permanent status quo at the moment, then look no further than the incredible book ‘How To Win a Premier League’ (hereafter HTWTPL) by Dr Ian Graham. It perfectly encapsulates the differing approaches of the clubs and why one is providing good returns on relatively low spend, and the other is haemorrhaging cash to field a relatively weaker first XI and provide a much thinner squad.

Now, I will start by saying I have long had my doubts about FSG. The last few seasons have seen various significant errors of judgement (according to me) like starting the season with only 3 senior CB’s and then having all 3 out for the season, leading to us signing a guy who happened to be walking past the stadium (Ben Davies) and bottom of the barrel Ozan Kabak. Those awful signings meant we missed an incredible opportunity to win the league after being top at Christmas.

We should also have missed out on Champs League that season, and meant for the first time I started to question FSG’s wisdom and intentions. Following that debacle FSG have only allowed modest sums of investment in the playing squad over the last 4 years making me concerned they had ticked the silverware box on their list and were going to simply put in minimal investment whilst trying to find a cash rich Saudi royal whom they could happily rinse.

Yet, HTWTPL pulled back the veil on the very innermost workings of Liverpool. It detailed the conversations, transfer lists, transfer policies, arguments and justifications for every incoming since 2012 and highlighted failures and successes in equal measure. For example, it stated happily that Ian Graham’s research group had put forward Mario Balotelli as a possible signing, but simply justifies this by saying they were not in charge of finding out whether the guy was a loon, but instead whether his transfer fee represented value for money. And looking at his stats and using their possession model (which I will speak more about) they deduced that by their estimation he appeared to be a bargain.

We of course signed him, he was most definitely a loon, and he was shipped out at a considerable loss, but that does not mean they were wrong, but simply that there is far more to whether a player will be a good signing than whether they are better at football than their prospective transfer fee states. Each step of the way they learned a little more and improved their system iteratively.

Really, only the first section of the book focuses extensively on Liverpool’s transfer policy. The rest details the data analysis team’s approach to the entirety of professional football and their attempt to understand how it worked. Their team extensively analysed every facet of football for which they could find data on. They looked at home and away variances, wage values across Europe, correlations between transfer spend and performance, correlations between contract spend and performance, what value managers add, how to judge team forms and the standard deviation expected across a season, league variation and working out what relative standard differing leagues operated at so as to accurately gauge player values in different leagues and much, much more. All in all, they reviewed every possible aspect of the club they felt they could offer insight into. And boy has it made a difference.

By my and probably Mr Graham’s approximation, the most valuable and pertinent aspect of their research was the possession value model. This model attempted to understand what value players add to a team. This can be summarised as ‘how good is the player’. As the available data increased, the complexity and accuracy of their model improved.

Where they struggled to understand how a DM or CB added value, they used the eventual mapping data on player movements to better understand how players can effectively ‘win’ areas of the pitch. Where they struggled with player roles and whether certain players intrinsic qualities might align with their own playing styles, they added player roles to their model to help understand target men’s qualities and limitations or small, pacey wingers or tall, strong but slow CB’s. Ian Graham and his team, including Will Spearman who is current head of data analytics with LFC, evolved their model to much better understand how to value football players. And once you have a very accurate measure of how valuable your own players are, plus how valuable other team’s players are, you can truly understand who the players are that will actually improve your team.

Once you have identified the relevant players a new list of variables is considered. Are they good professionals? Do they have huge egos? Will they fit your style? etc etc. Then you have to find out whether they are available, whether they will come to your team and whether you can afford them. With each of these issues will be a level of uncertainty and you have to decide whether the risk is worth it. And lets not forget, the better your team, the smaller the pool pf players who will improve it.

Firstly, what it made me realise was that FSG truly believed in their way of governance, which was to find intelligent individuals who would apply scientific principles to running a football club. That might mean simply using data to hire a genius manager and then largely letting him coach the players in the way he sees fit, or to find a coach and then supply that person with a team of intelligent people to reinforce his football acumen with additional useful information so that he can judge what info is of use and what is to be ignored.

As for the transfer and financial side of the football spectrum, having a manager like Jurgen be humble enough to allow opinion from, certainly at the start, a committee of data analysts who had been largely derided by the press and had numerous failures in the transfer market, but were using a logical basis from which to try and help identify players, really helped.

And it is important to state the research team are at pains to point out their methods do not mean a player will be a success, as HTWTPL states, a remarkable amount of transfers are failures, but applying solid, logical principles to a transfer approach merely increases the likelihood of success, and that, considering the vast sums paid, is incredibly valuable.

And if you need a real-world example of the pitfalls of just repeatedly assuming that bringing in new players at considerable cost without really understanding how they will improve your team, or if they will at all, then look no further than Sunday’s opponents. Utd have a manager they don’t really want, fielding a team which is objectively weaker, with a weaker bench, but who also have a net spend of nearly £300m more in the last 5 years alone. This surely provides a painful representation of a failing club governance policy. I should suggest that instead of worrying about Ten Hag and the playing squad, Utd’s owners should look at overhauling their old school football club ownership model.

And finally, to any football fan, and certainly ones who have a scientific/data leaning, but also those who simply are interested in football insight and the advances in football, I implore you to give HTWTPL a read. It is a dry but wonderfully interesting read.
Ed Ern